Climate Change / Water Shortage / Crop Production: The Perfect Disruption in the Coming Decades

• Do we, in the US, take our freshwater for granted?
• Do we have an opinion about Climate Change?
• Is food availability and selection something to complain about?
• Is too much rain as much of a problem as too little?
• Like our national and personal budget processes, what happens when demand exceeds supply?

Just a few questions to get you thinking about the content of the article in this post.

The main thrust of the recent report in Water Efficiency / July 2010: More Than One out of Three US Counties Face Water Shortages Due to Climate Change - is ALL about food production in the US.

There are over 2,800 counties in the Continental US. The Report suggests that "over 1,100 U.S. counties—more than one-third of all counties in the lower 48 states — now face higher risks of water shortages by mid-century as the result of global warming and more than 400 of these counties will be at extremely high risk for water shortages."

The "greatest risks [are] seen in 14 states: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas and the threat to our food supply could exceed $100 Billion in crops!"

This is far greater than a Perfect Storm. It would be a Perfect Disruption.

The Brown Rat versus The Rhinoceros

The Brown Rat is definitely winning this battle - at least the rat population in Washington, DC versus the Rhino (and other large animals) in many of the preserves across Africa.

What I found interesting about these articles is not just their content but about the WashingtonPost (accidental or coincidental) having both as headlines in the Health & Science section of today's edition. A sketch of the Brown Rat looks at the heading - Potent Rodent while the percentage - 59% introduces the caption: "Decline in large mammal population in Africa's national parks..."

And what seems to be a common factor between both results? Human intervention!

Researchers said "however bad it is inside the protected areas, it is almost undoubtedly worse outside. The rhinoceros...is practically extinct outside the parks."

WashingtonPost: SCIENCE NEWS
Across Africa, Large-Mammal Populations Suffered Major Declines in Recent Decades

Unfortunately, there is no link to the Brown Rat article, so here are a few of the more relevant facts.

1. The Brown Rat is D.C.'s second most successful mammal. I am assuming that humans continue to be #1! Another victory for being human.
2. The human contribution to the success of this mammal is not inconsequential: unsecured garbage; uneaten pet food left outside the home; excessive accumulation of weeds and junk in yards; easy building access with numerous small-hole entry points; and finally, in our willingness to feed birds, those seeds become excellent dietary supplements.

To keep rat success in proper perspective, its cousin - the African rat, is also doing quite well. Perhaps it has less to do with humans - THIS TIME - than it does with the instincts of the rats themselves!

Gardens: Good for Urban US. Good for Developing Countries

Here is a bit of irony. In today's WashingtonPost newspaper, there appears an article about Rooftop Gardens in Urban Areas of the United States. The companies highlighted should be praised for their innovative use of company rooftop space that would otherwise contribute negatively to the environment since dark roof surfaces absorb solar energy. In an urban environment, the aggregation of heat on these rooftops becomes additive.

In fact, in May of 2009, Steven Chu, the newly appointed Secretary of Energy in the Obama Administration suggested that the US should consider Painting Roofs White! "When sunlight is reflected off a white or light-coloured surface much of that light will pass through the atmosphere and back into space."

"...the Nobel prize-winning scientist, said..that making roofs and pavements white or light-coloured would help to reduce global warming by both conserving energy and reflecting sunlight back into space. It would, he said, be the equivalent of taking all the cars in the world off the road for 11 years!"

Some companies believe that "rooftop gardens provide environmental benefits similar to traditional green roofs, in which plants are used to reduce storm-water runoff, filter pollutants and cut heating and cooling costs. The gardens also can make it easier for city residents to get fresh fruit and vegetables, which is seen as a way of improving public health."

I say this is ironic because the need for Community Gardens has a much greater need in developing countries than simply being green. Our Seeds For Food projects are providing nutritional benefits to the poorest people living in the most extreme environments in the world's poorest countries.

Yes, rooftops offer potential benefits to urban areas. But, there is a greater need throughout the world for innovative garden projects, such as those that can be addressed with programs like Seeds For Food.

Can Bio-Engineered-Gone-Wild Algae Take Over the World?

The term Genetically Modified Organism - or GMO is rapidly becoming part of our daily language. And, yes, whenever most people think of modifying the genes of any organism, it usually raises a lot of negative emotions.

Wikipedia states that: "a Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) or Genetically Engineered Organism (GEO) is an organism whose genetic material has been altered using genetic engineering techniques. These techniques, generally known as recombinant DNA technology, use DNA molecules from different sources, which are combined into one molecule to create a new set of genes. This DNA is then transferred into an organism, giving it modified or novel genes."

In today's NYTimes, there is a very interesting article - Exploring Algae as Fuel - offering the pro's and con's of using genetic modification to "create superalgae, highly efficient at converting sunlight and carbon dioxide into lipids and oils that can be sent to a refinery and made into diesel or jet fuel."

It is an interesting read on the challenges and global demand for such an innovative energy source. However, I cannot guarantee that you will feel any better about the potential unintentional consequences of the GMO process.

Water Management in the Heart of Northern California’s Wine Country

Sir Francis Bacon (1561-1626) is credited with the origin of the phrase - Information is Power. He believed that in order to truly understand something, it first needed to be studied. IBM is doing just that in its efforts to apply its technology and consultative expertise in the real-time management of natural resources.

I should again thank George Denhard for providing me with the link to the article described in Water Efficiency, The Journal for Water Resource Management.

June 24, 2010: "IBM and the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA), which supplies water to more than 600,000 people, have teamed up to address the pressing problem of water management in the heart of Northern California’s wine country."

IBM's first US project - IBM Aims to Help Alleviate Water Shortages in Northern California's Wine - "bring[s] together and analyz[es] data including water usage and quality, weather and climate, and environmental considerations..."

The Value of Land and the Capitalism of Chaos

The May 27, 2010 issue of Rolling Stone Magazine had a very interesting article by McKenzie Funk about rising international interests in the acquisition of productive land throughout the world - with a particular focus on Africa.

The title will easily focus your attention to the characteristics of becoming one of the "New Capitalists of Chaos".

To truly understand what is going on behind the scenes in countries with high-quality - and available - land assets, as well as the politics behind the deal-making in many developing and unstable countries, I encourage you to read this article in detail:

Will Global Warming, Overpopulation, Floods, Droughts and Food Riots Make This Man Rich?

Do You Believe in Magic? Then, Perhaps Shipping Freshwater in Tankers Like Oil?

"Bulk water transfers are not new. Diversions out of river basins both within and between countries have occurred for decades: Singapore imports water from neighboring Malaysia; Lesotho sends water to South Africa via the Highlands Project; Southern California exists as we know it today because of water channeled from the Sierra Nevada hundreds of miles to the north."

What is new is the plan to move large quantities of water "from North America to a bulk bottling plant in India in order to supply the thirsty Middle East." Imagine a new breed of huge tanker ships that would be filled with freshwater rather than crude oil!

Magic? This may be closer to reality than you think.

From Circle of Blue: Bulk Water Exports: Alaska City Wants to Sell the World a Drink (June 2, 2010)