Monday, January 4, 2010

Milankovitch and the Next Ice Age

There really are a lot of sites dedicated to understanding/defending/debunking the Milankovitch Theory of Climate Change. I suggest that you take a ride through your favorite search engine and complete your own analysis.

I felt compelled to do some additional research to see if I could get a little bit smarter to what he has theorized and what others believe about the likelihood of it getting colder and icier in the near future.

In an older New York Times article (11/11/2003) by Andrew Revkin, he shares some thoughts from scientific experts that I hope will encourage you to continue beyond this post. I think it is safe to state that there will be another ice age! Many scientists believe that we are well into the final stages of our current inter-glacial period. Of course, that depends on whether the science is correct behind determining that the cycles are regularly occurring every 12,000 years or so. A Big IF.

The article can be accessed at the following link:

Yet, there are some interesting details that help us through this uncertainty.
  • The next Ice Age will reach its peak in about 80,000 years! It seems that where there is disagreement is when everyone believes it will begin.
  • Humans (intervention into nature) may delay the dawn of the next Ice Age by a millennium or two or even longer.
  • Humans (intervention into nature) have taken over control of the mechanisms that determine the climate change.
  • Human-driven global warming - although perhaps a disaster on a scale of centuries - may be a good thing in the long run if it fends off the next ice age awhile.

These may not offer much consolation. The interviews seem to indicate are that Nature has a way of taking over to restore balance. Humans have demonstrated an uncanny ability for pushing the envelope and may even be able to exhaust natural order to a breaking point.

There will continue to be theories. There will continue to be variances in those theories. Whether atmospheric gas build-up or glacial ice wins, there is a good chance that human resourcefulness may simply run out of options.

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