I refer you again to Dr. Van Cotthem's blog. This time to revisit Kazakhstan. When were we there last? When, in previous blogs, we spoke about the Aral Sea.
It is again time to look at the demands for freshwater and again, it has a lot to do with China and its emerging assault on the environment as population centers and development continue.
The challenge - THIS TIME - is to not replicate another Aral Sea. But, then, this time the negotiation will be with China and not Russia. I guess that makes this different.
Showing newest 39 of 40 posts from January 2010. Show older posts
Showing newest 39 of 40 posts from January 2010. Show older posts
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Energy Star Rating is not the Biggest Challenge for The Good Stove
As an aid to get focused on this post, let’s review the Energy Star Program. It has expanded nicely since its inception. ENERGY STAR is an international standard for energy-efficient consumer products. It is a broad label – and is continuing to be expanded beyond products to include, not only major appliances, but also new homes and buildings- for any individuals or households that use goods and services generated within the economy.
The program was first created as a United States government program in 1992. This has since been adopted by Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Taiwan and the European Union. Products carrying this symbol provide a way for businesses and consumers to save money, and perhaps more importantly, to provide a standard against which energy consumptions can be compared while protecting the environment.
So, now that we better understand Energy Star, we can look more closely at a “new” appliance that is being promoted throughout many parts of the developing world – The Good Stove.
It is no surprise that this product - designed by Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar Reddy, Founder and CEO of Geoecology Energy Organisation (GEO) - is located in Andhra Pradesh, India. The purpose of GEO is simple: An Initiative to Mitigate Climate Change through Adaptation.
The original post for this appeared in Dr. Van Cotthem’s Desertification blog.
The intention of this post is not to elaborate on Dr. Reddy’s organization or his mission.
The intention of this post is you focus your attention to photos on his website that show how The Good Stove is being used to “Mitigate Climate Change.” These stoves are an improvement over the austere conditions that exist – not just in India – but in most of the developing world. Even Appalachia (in the US) is better off!
This first link will be a description of his most basic design: The Good Stove Design.
The second link will return to the Good Stove homepage: Good Stove.
The third link will move you a table of the versions of stove that are available. It is actually quite comprehensive: Types of Stove.
The fourth link will take you a photolink: People Who Have Adopted Good Stoves. If you took any time to look through and understand the Types of Stove designs, you will notice that the version shown in this photolink is one of the base models.
Finally, I will ask you to return to the homepage and just go through the site. The exercise is important to put some perspective between the conditions throughout the developing world and our Energy Star partners!
This is just part of the debate about root causes of global warming.
The program was first created as a United States government program in 1992. This has since been adopted by Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Taiwan and the European Union. Products carrying this symbol provide a way for businesses and consumers to save money, and perhaps more importantly, to provide a standard against which energy consumptions can be compared while protecting the environment.
So, now that we better understand Energy Star, we can look more closely at a “new” appliance that is being promoted throughout many parts of the developing world – The Good Stove.
It is no surprise that this product - designed by Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar Reddy, Founder and CEO of Geoecology Energy Organisation (GEO) - is located in Andhra Pradesh, India. The purpose of GEO is simple: An Initiative to Mitigate Climate Change through Adaptation.
The original post for this appeared in Dr. Van Cotthem’s Desertification blog.
The intention of this post is not to elaborate on Dr. Reddy’s organization or his mission.
The intention of this post is you focus your attention to photos on his website that show how The Good Stove is being used to “Mitigate Climate Change.” These stoves are an improvement over the austere conditions that exist – not just in India – but in most of the developing world. Even Appalachia (in the US) is better off!
This first link will be a description of his most basic design: The Good Stove Design.
The second link will return to the Good Stove homepage: Good Stove.
The third link will move you a table of the versions of stove that are available. It is actually quite comprehensive: Types of Stove.
The fourth link will take you a photolink: People Who Have Adopted Good Stoves. If you took any time to look through and understand the Types of Stove designs, you will notice that the version shown in this photolink is one of the base models.
Finally, I will ask you to return to the homepage and just go through the site. The exercise is important to put some perspective between the conditions throughout the developing world and our Energy Star partners!
This is just part of the debate about root causes of global warming.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
The Stratosphere - Water Vapor - Global Warming/Cooling: Is There a Connection?
You may have seen a reference to a recent National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) study about water vapor in the atmosphere and its impact on rising global temperatures.
The article: Stratospheric Water Vapor is a Global Warming Wild Card (01/2010) was published in the journal Science (01/2010). Susan Solomon was the NOAA senior scientist and first author of this study.
In a recent post, I offered information clarifying the fundamental differences between Climate and Weather. It seems that there is yet another influence that contributes to weather variability.
According to Solomon, “Current climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near the surface. But this is different — it’s a thin wedge of the upper atmosphere that packs a wallop from one decade to the next in a way we didn’t expect.’
‘The stratosphere is a region of the atmosphere from about eight to 30 miles above the Earth’s surface. Water vapor enters the stratosphere mainly as air rises in the tropics. [This] new study is the first to relate water vapor in the stratosphere to the specific variations in warming of the past few decades.’”
There are some good details in the NOAA site link. I also refer you to the following link to the New York Times Dot Earth blog by Andrew Revkin. In his 01/29/2010 post, he offers the following: “short-term variability even on the scale of a decade (in either the hot or not hot direction) is a distraction if one is looking for evidence of human-driven warming or trying to build an argument for or against curbing emissions of greenhouse gases.'
'the science illuminating the extent of the human influence on climate is not “settled” for many specific, and important, points, even though the basic case for rising risks from rising concentrations of greenhouse gases is robust enough to merit a strong response.'”
The article: Less Water Vapor May Slow Warming Trends (01/28/2010) appears in New York Times/Environment section by Sindya Banyoo.
A study done by NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies): Reaction of Ozone and Climate to Increasing Stratospheric Water Vapor by Drew Shindell was published way back in the dark ages of May 2001. It offers some clues to the importance and impact of Stratospheric Water Vapor. "The model indicates that increased water vapor accounts for about 40% of the ozone loss in the upper stratosphere, and about 20% of the overall loss to date. There are two driving forces behind the change in stratospheric moisture. Increasing emissions of methane are transformed into water in the stratosphere by chemical reactions. This can account for about a third of the observed increase in moisture there.'
'In addition, there is a greater transport of water from the lower atmosphere, which happens for several reasons. First of all, more water may be available in the lower atmosphere to be carried up. Warmer air holds more water vapor than colder air, so global warming will make the lower atmosphere wetter. Another possibility is that air is carried up more rapidly into the stratosphere.'
'Climate models indicate that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane may enhance the transport of air from the lower atmosphere up into the stratosphere. Additionally, the coldest temperature through which the air passes could change, which would alter the amount of water that freezes out along the way. Though not fully understood, the increased transport of water vapor to the stratosphere seems to have been caused at least partially by human activities."
Now you know a little bit more about that Thin Blue Line that surrounds our planet.
The article: Stratospheric Water Vapor is a Global Warming Wild Card (01/2010) was published in the journal Science (01/2010). Susan Solomon was the NOAA senior scientist and first author of this study.
In a recent post, I offered information clarifying the fundamental differences between Climate and Weather. It seems that there is yet another influence that contributes to weather variability.
According to Solomon, “Current climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near the surface. But this is different — it’s a thin wedge of the upper atmosphere that packs a wallop from one decade to the next in a way we didn’t expect.’
‘The stratosphere is a region of the atmosphere from about eight to 30 miles above the Earth’s surface. Water vapor enters the stratosphere mainly as air rises in the tropics. [This] new study is the first to relate water vapor in the stratosphere to the specific variations in warming of the past few decades.’”
There are some good details in the NOAA site link. I also refer you to the following link to the New York Times Dot Earth blog by Andrew Revkin. In his 01/29/2010 post, he offers the following: “short-term variability even on the scale of a decade (in either the hot or not hot direction) is a distraction if one is looking for evidence of human-driven warming or trying to build an argument for or against curbing emissions of greenhouse gases.'
'the science illuminating the extent of the human influence on climate is not “settled” for many specific, and important, points, even though the basic case for rising risks from rising concentrations of greenhouse gases is robust enough to merit a strong response.'”
The article: Less Water Vapor May Slow Warming Trends (01/28/2010) appears in New York Times/Environment section by Sindya Banyoo.
A study done by NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies): Reaction of Ozone and Climate to Increasing Stratospheric Water Vapor by Drew Shindell was published way back in the dark ages of May 2001. It offers some clues to the importance and impact of Stratospheric Water Vapor. "The model indicates that increased water vapor accounts for about 40% of the ozone loss in the upper stratosphere, and about 20% of the overall loss to date. There are two driving forces behind the change in stratospheric moisture. Increasing emissions of methane are transformed into water in the stratosphere by chemical reactions. This can account for about a third of the observed increase in moisture there.'
'In addition, there is a greater transport of water from the lower atmosphere, which happens for several reasons. First of all, more water may be available in the lower atmosphere to be carried up. Warmer air holds more water vapor than colder air, so global warming will make the lower atmosphere wetter. Another possibility is that air is carried up more rapidly into the stratosphere.'
'Climate models indicate that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane may enhance the transport of air from the lower atmosphere up into the stratosphere. Additionally, the coldest temperature through which the air passes could change, which would alter the amount of water that freezes out along the way. Though not fully understood, the increased transport of water vapor to the stratosphere seems to have been caused at least partially by human activities."
Now you know a little bit more about that Thin Blue Line that surrounds our planet.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Land Resources of Africa
Since the last post was looking specifically at the rush to sell land in Africa, I noticed that there is an interesting link to the right (Encyclopedia of Earth) that provides a very good - and comprehensive - overview of the resources of Africa which obviously includes land.
If Land is More Valuable than Gold, then Why is there a Land Rush to Sell Valuable African Farmland?
The region of French West Africa where I was digging wells as a Peace Corps Volunteer, was experiencing the worst drought of the century. I would occasionally ask villagers why they wouldn't relocate to the more fertile regions in the southern, more tropical region of the country. Life could be better.
The answer was always the same: “At least, we have our land. If we move, we have nothing.”
Even in many of the least developed countries, there is a basic understanding that land is valuable – regardless of its condition.
Yet, we also know that everything has its price.
There is a common theme throughout most of the articles in this post on the sale of African land. Land is worth more than gold! Land ownership does make a tangible difference!
If that is true in developing countries, then it is even more true in countries where food production must keep pace with rapidly expanding populations. This has led to the emerging interest by many countries to purchase land in Africa either as a hedge against waning agricultural productivity in their home countries or in anticipation of future domestic and global needs.
Put differently: the rush to buy "under-developed" but high-potential farmland in Africa reflects a growing recognition that domestic agricultural productivity in many of the more populous nations is being pushed to its limits. In China, Britain, Germany, Russia, India, Korea, there are areas where irrigation levels can no longer be sustained - can no longer provide the reliable moisture necessary to maintain agricultural production levels, or, for simple business reasons, these countries see an emerging global move towards biofuel production.
Even if there is sufficient rainfall and/or irrigation, soil conditions may have deteriorated. The most common soil problems are salinization, sodification, and alkalization. To understand the importance and impact of land degradation, the following links will provide an overview of these problems:
ENVironmental ASsessment of Soil for mOnitoring/ENVASSO: Salt affected soils cover extensive areas on each continent of the Earth. Salinity, alkalinity and sodicity are among the most important and widespread soil degradation processes and environmental/ecological stresses in the biosphere. They limit agro-ecological potential and represent a considerable ecological and socio-economical risk for sustainable development.
Sustainable Agriculture/Australia: The continuing drought in Australia has kept that country in the news. The following discusses the soil issues and one company’s effort to improve soil condition: By way of background, sodicity is an environmental issue that adversely affects soils by causing clay particles to swell and disperse. Swelling and dispersion of the clay minerals, in turn, clogs soil pores and prevents nutrient, air and water transport. The resultant water-logging, lack of aeration, and poor nutrient access, leads to poor plant growth in affected soils. In addition, the dispersible clays set hard on drying to make root penetration difficult, and slake on wetting to exacerbate soil erosion. Between 25 and 30% of Australian soils are sodic.
Hydrogeochemical modelling of soil...: Abstract: Hydrogeochemical modelling of soil salinisation, alkalinisation and sodification: Presentation and calibration of the PASTIS model. Irrigation allowed improving agriculture productivity in arid regions. However, in some places, irrigation was at the origin of gradual changes in soil physicochemical properties. These changes led after several years of cropping to losses in fertility. Such salinisation processes have been noticed in irrigated areas of the Sahelian African sub-region as in Mali, Senegal and Niger. Avoiding salinisation requires properly understanding and quantifying the relationships between water regime and the chemical processes occurring within a soil profile.
Now that there is a better understanding of the importance of soil and water (irrigation), there is another simple equation that is useful to provide another perspective to this relationship: Food = Virtual Water.
Water quality and the misuse of water (quantity) will ultimately affect first, soil quality and eventually, food production.
Now for some links to the subject in question - to get focused - on what exactly is creating all of the noise.
The subject: Foreign Land Ownership of Africa.
Reuters/Africa News Blog: Selling Africa by the Pound (01/2009)
IPS/Inter-Press Service: Africa - Could Regulation Ease Fears Over Land Grab? (10/2009)
SolveClimate: Biofuels Watch - Africa Land-Grab Deals Questioned (05/2009)
Some of the ultimate questions that African countries must ask are:
Should Africa be handing out its land to foreign investors and will the local people and countries involved be the ones to benefit?
Can governments ensure there are well-negotiated policies to govern land?
Can governments ensure that smallholder farmers will be prevented from losing their livelihoods?
Can governments ensure against the creation of monoculture and big plantations?
There are probably many more questions that will need to be answered. Take note, the move to acquire land in Africa will not abate – perhaps, until it is too late.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Inupiat Eskimos Bring Climate Change to the Supreme Court - Maybe
When we think of Climate Change, we usually think of catastrophic environmental impact.
We often hear the likelihood of increased frequency of Category 5 hurricanes. We see images of coastal metropolitan areas being immersed in tsunami-like waves from rising sea levels. We see projections of unpredictable and extreme global weather patterns and changing seasons disrupting global agricultural production.
When we think of Climate Change, we have come to envision most or all of the 1,200 islands comprising the Maldives archipelago (1.5 metres/4.9 feet ABOVE sea level) disappearing under the rising levels of the Pacific Ocean.
We often hear the likelihood of increased frequency of Category 5 hurricanes. We see images of coastal metropolitan areas being immersed in tsunami-like waves from rising sea levels. We see projections of unpredictable and extreme global weather patterns and changing seasons disrupting global agricultural production.
When we think of Climate Change, we have come to envision most or all of the 1,200 islands comprising the Maldives archipelago (1.5 metres/4.9 feet ABOVE sea level) disappearing under the rising levels of the Pacific Ocean.
- CNN.com/asia: From Underwater, Maldives Sends Warning on Climate Change
- The Guardian: Maldives Seeks to Buy a New Homeland
- NewJerseyNewsroom: Islands Like Maldives Await Disaster from Climate Change
For the Maldives, there is simply not enough latitude between remaining a coral island or becoming a coral reef.
Hurricane Katrina is such an example of the confluence of events that pushed aside man-made levees to allow the already endangered city (5 feet/1.5 metres BELOW sea level to 17 feet/5.1 metres ABOVE) of New Orleans become a partial Atlantis.
Yet, apparently, there is another barrier island of 400 Inupiat Eskimo residents - above the Arctic Circle in Kivalina, Alaska - that is proceeding with a very big lawsuit against two dozen fuel and utility companies of helping to cause climate change which is accelerating the erosion of its island.
The details appear in today's New York Times by John Schwartz (01/2010): Courts As Battlefields in Climate Fights.
Like the residents of the Maldives, these Eskimos will need to be relocated to a new home. As one report from Swiss Re (a major global insurance giant) stated: "climate-change liabilities could become significant issues within the next couple of years."
European Commission Humanitarian Aid / ECHO
This is an important link because "the European Union is one of the world's main humanitarian aid donors." Many articles from ECHO appear in Professor Van Cotthem's Desertification blog to the right but I thought it was important to highlight this link directly.
Once into the site, I encourage you to go to each of the individual sections on the left side - beginning with About Us. The Aid In Action section will move directly into each of the geographic areas where projects and programs are actively supported.
Once into the site, I encourage you to go to each of the individual sections on the left side - beginning with About Us. The Aid In Action section will move directly into each of the geographic areas where projects and programs are actively supported.
There is a lot of detail to read through because there continues to be a lot of aid dispensed by the EU and other nations to many in need throughout the world.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
What is the Difference between Weather and Climate
Can Weather and Climate be used interchangeably?
With conversations about global warming occurring ever more frequently, it might be wise to review the meaning of these two terms as relate to Climate Change.
With conversations about global warming occurring ever more frequently, it might be wise to review the meaning of these two terms as relate to Climate Change.
What's the Difference between Weather and Climate?
- National Aeronautics & Space Administration: Climate & Global Change
- National Center for Atmospheric Research/UCAR: Weather & Climate Basics
However, there are also a lot of skeptics who do not believe in Climate Change. To understand their side of the argument, I offer:
- Skeptical Science: If Scientists Can't Predict Weather, How Can They Predict Long-term Climate?
What ARE the Options to Combat Global Warming?
As I have said in previous posts, when speaking of global warming and climate change, it is not a question of "if" but more about "when" and "how much".
The following essay by Jim Manzi from Cato Unbound (08/2008) - Keeping Our Cool: What to do about Global Warming - offers a rather comprehensive comparison of the pro's and con's/options to the possibilities and costs associated with global warming mitigation strategies.
Imagine what it would take to agree to AND enforce a global agreement to act from entities and individuals such as: the Parliament of India, the Brazilian National Congress, the Chinese Politburo, Vladimir Putin, John Dingell and the U.S. ethanol lobby - not just a few or several but all!
These are some of the challenges that are described in this essay that i think you will find to be very informative.
The following essay by Jim Manzi from Cato Unbound (08/2008) - Keeping Our Cool: What to do about Global Warming - offers a rather comprehensive comparison of the pro's and con's/options to the possibilities and costs associated with global warming mitigation strategies.
Imagine what it would take to agree to AND enforce a global agreement to act from entities and individuals such as: the Parliament of India, the Brazilian National Congress, the Chinese Politburo, Vladimir Putin, John Dingell and the U.S. ethanol lobby - not just a few or several but all!
These are some of the challenges that are described in this essay that i think you will find to be very informative.
If Today's World is Modern, How Did it Get There?
I just discovered an interesting site - Cato Unbound.
An essay by Stephen Davies (11/2009) - How the World Got Modern - takes us through the maze of world history (sociology and economics included) to explain (possibly) how and why the world order exists today as it does with such questions as:
An essay by Stephen Davies (11/2009) - How the World Got Modern - takes us through the maze of world history (sociology and economics included) to explain (possibly) how and why the world order exists today as it does with such questions as:
- How and why is the world we live in so radically different (discontinuous) from that of our ancestors?
- How and why did this radical discontinuity in historical experience come about?
Monday, January 25, 2010
The Good. The Bad. The Ugly. OZONE
Again, I thank Joe Mastromatteo for his continued assault on learning about ozone. He found an EPA site that has a very good document and graphic describing ozone in easily digestible bites.
Brown Clouds are NOT EcoChic
In an earlier post (Princeton Climate Model...), I discussed the significance of aerosols in the atmosphere. Understanding the importance of aerosols cannot be overstated - especially as they affect climate.
The following article from National Geographic News (01/2010): "Brown Clouds Contribute to Himalaya Glacier Melt" by Anna Casselman discusses how these clouds are formed and their potential impact. A recent study showed that "the brown clouds over India could enhance atmospheric warming by as much a 50%."
While we may be accustomed to seeing beautiful orange sunsets, we should be very concerned if we begin to see any brown clouds - regardless of their shape and size - floating overhead!
The following article from National Geographic News (01/2010): "Brown Clouds Contribute to Himalaya Glacier Melt" by Anna Casselman discusses how these clouds are formed and their potential impact. A recent study showed that "the brown clouds over India could enhance atmospheric warming by as much a 50%."
While we may be accustomed to seeing beautiful orange sunsets, we should be very concerned if we begin to see any brown clouds - regardless of their shape and size - floating overhead!
European Eels: A Biodiversity Domino
I can't say that I am an eel aficionado. I have caught a few when fishing and eaten some as sushi.
Eels, like most species, have a complex life cycle.
In this BBC article (01/2010): Eel Populations in London's River Thames Crash by 98%, you will understand a bit more about their history and importance as another barometer of ecosystem health.
This is not about food. It is all about understanding WHY they are disappearing and how their disappearance may be a domino effect for other species that depend on the eel for their survival.
Eels, like most species, have a complex life cycle.
In this BBC article (01/2010): Eel Populations in London's River Thames Crash by 98%, you will understand a bit more about their history and importance as another barometer of ecosystem health.
This is not about food. It is all about understanding WHY they are disappearing and how their disappearance may be a domino effect for other species that depend on the eel for their survival.
Global Biodiversity Stress
With 2010 having been designated by the UN as the International Year of Biodiversity, there will likely be a significant increase in media coverage on this subject as well as Climate Change because of the inextricable link between the two.
In a recent BBC Viewpoint (01/2010): Biodiversity Nears 'Point of No Return' - the author, Hilary Benn, the UK's Environment Secretary warns that the world's biodiversity is reaching a point of no return. He offers comments like:
In a recent BBC Viewpoint (01/2010): Biodiversity Nears 'Point of No Return' - the author, Hilary Benn, the UK's Environment Secretary warns that the world's biodiversity is reaching a point of no return. He offers comments like:
- "Our ecological footprint - what we take out of the planet - is now 1.3 times the biological capacity of the Earth!"
- Ecosystems are important to humanity because "they sustain our economies - purifying our drinking water, producing our food and regulating our climate."
- "Perverse subsidies and the lack of value attached to the services provided by ecosystems have been factors contributing to their loss. What we cannot cost, we don't value - until it has gone."
So, while their have been erroneous/debatable scientific statements by key organizations - Disappearing Himalayan Glaciers, Increase/Decrease of Atlantic Hurricanes, there should be little question that our environment is changing AND the biodiversity of our planet is extremely important to our survival as a species.
It is never too late to think about ways we can contribute to reducing the size of our ecological footprint.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
A Balance between "EcoChic" Fashion - Biodiversity - Sustainability
The UN News Centre (site link to the right of this post) has a very interesting article on its outreach to the fashion and cosmetics industries "in an 'eco-fashion' battle to curb the unprecedented loss of the world's biodiversity."
The United Nations General Assembly has declared 2010 to be the International Year of Biodiversity. In support of this focus, "more than 500 prominent figures from government, international organizations and the fashion and cosmetics industries have been meeting in Geneva at a "Best Use of Nature" forum to discuss how to promote ethical action by producers and consumers against the rapid loss of the world's species."
The full text of this article can be found at:
The United Nations General Assembly has declared 2010 to be the International Year of Biodiversity. In support of this focus, "more than 500 prominent figures from government, international organizations and the fashion and cosmetics industries have been meeting in Geneva at a "Best Use of Nature" forum to discuss how to promote ethical action by producers and consumers against the rapid loss of the world's species."
The full text of this article can be found at:
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Does Global Warming Affect Earth's Water Levels? Can We Even Tell?
- Glaciers are receding.
- The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are breaking up and floating into the oceans.
- As Climate Change worsens, ocean levels will rise and threaten all continental coastlines.
These are the scientific assertions and governments are responding with a variety of mitigation programs that some consider to be too expensive and many consider to be not enough.
If all of these things are happening, then surely it would be helpful if there was a way to measure these changes - accurately and dependably. The following article from the European Science Foundation (11/2008) - Measuring Water From Space - offers examples of how this task is being executed.In March of 2002, NASA and the German Aerospace Center launched twin satellites to make detailed measurements of the Earth's gravity field as part of its overall efforts to continually monitor Earth's natural systems. The program is called GRACE - Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment.
Scientists from the Labratoire d'Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiale as well as the European Space Agency and DeMontfort University in the UK are also actively using data from these satellites to measure sea levels and lake and river levels.
"The importance of this information will be crucial for monitoring its effects and predicting future impacts on different regions."
Princeton Climate Model Predicts Fewer but More Intense Atlantic Hurricanes
Just this week, it was reported that the IPCC may have misstated a comment about the disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers due to global warming.
In today's NYTimes, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University has published a modeling study (originally published in Science) - Warming Expected to Cut Atlantic Hurricane Tally but Boost Threat (01/2010) - that projects a rise in potential hurricane damage in the Western Atlantic.
These enhanced analytical skills are possible because of the improvement in super-computer modeling capabilities. Yet, the study also acknowledges that "there can be other factors which could influence projected results - such as, local conditions can also greatly influence the energy potential of hurricanes. Also, different computer models can and do produce different results."
In conversations that I have had with climate scientists at NASA, there was another interesting factor that "seems" to have an impact on hurricane frequency and intensity - atmospheric aerosols. For the Atlantic, these generally come from West Africa.
The study's author, William Lau, offers the following conclusion of this study (from the NASA website) - Saharan Dust Has Chilling Effect on North Atlantic (12/2007): "Previous studies have looked at how hot, dry air associated with a Saharan dust outbreak affects an individual storm, but our study is the first to focus on dust's radiative effect on seas surface temperatures, which may affect storms for the entire season. Nobody had suggested that link before."
Does the Princeton study offer a better assessment of what is likely to happen to the quantity and intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes than NASA? Or, will Princeton's assertions follow a similar fate as IPCC and Himalayan glaciers?
In today's NYTimes, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University has published a modeling study (originally published in Science) - Warming Expected to Cut Atlantic Hurricane Tally but Boost Threat (01/2010) - that projects a rise in potential hurricane damage in the Western Atlantic.
These enhanced analytical skills are possible because of the improvement in super-computer modeling capabilities. Yet, the study also acknowledges that "there can be other factors which could influence projected results - such as, local conditions can also greatly influence the energy potential of hurricanes. Also, different computer models can and do produce different results."
In conversations that I have had with climate scientists at NASA, there was another interesting factor that "seems" to have an impact on hurricane frequency and intensity - atmospheric aerosols. For the Atlantic, these generally come from West Africa.
The study's author, William Lau, offers the following conclusion of this study (from the NASA website) - Saharan Dust Has Chilling Effect on North Atlantic (12/2007): "Previous studies have looked at how hot, dry air associated with a Saharan dust outbreak affects an individual storm, but our study is the first to focus on dust's radiative effect on seas surface temperatures, which may affect storms for the entire season. Nobody had suggested that link before."
Does the Princeton study offer a better assessment of what is likely to happen to the quantity and intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes than NASA? Or, will Princeton's assertions follow a similar fate as IPCC and Himalayan glaciers?
Friday, January 22, 2010
Ships of the Desert: Even They Need Water "to Sail"
The Earth Times link (to the right of this post) helps put the Australian drought into an even bolder perspective.
When we think of camels, we most often envision "Ships of the Sahara Desert and Middle East". They are rugged, independent and well-adapted to extremely dry, desert conditions. I have included a few links to provide an overview of camel physiology to better understand how well-suited to desert life the camel truly is.
When we think of camels, we most often envision "Ships of the Sahara Desert and Middle East". They are rugged, independent and well-adapted to extremely dry, desert conditions. I have included a few links to provide an overview of camel physiology to better understand how well-suited to desert life the camel truly is.
In spite of their unique qualities, these "Ships" still need water to survive. First, a bit of history. Camels were imported to Australia from India. When motorized vehicles established themselves as the transportation of choice in the 1920's, camels were released from duty and sent to wander the Outback. At first, that provided the easiest solution but one that created today's population of feral camels.
This first link provides a greater historical detail of the introduction of the camel to Australia: Ecological Effects of Feral Camels...on Australia.
As you can imagine, for every problem created there will always be an attempt to find the easiest (though often not strategic) solution.
Now that Australia has been in the midst of an extreme drought, even the "Feral Ships" are finding survival a most difficult challenge. Since being turned away into the Outback, they have developed primal survival instincts which are now returning full-circle to the very ones responsible for their present dire circumstances.
It is that scenario that is described in the Earth Times article: Australia's Death-Row Camels Offered Saudi Sanctuary.
As I was able to witness firsthand in Africa during its worst drought of the century, extreme conditions will always elicit extreme behavior between species. In Africa, it was inter-tribal. In Australia, it is now between the "Feral Ships" and humans.
Guess who is likely to win this one?
The Hard Numbers - Consumption
We just received the current issue of Denison Magazine. Denison University is a Division III school in Central Ohio from which my son will be graduating this May. Over the past four years, we have grown accustomed to receiving this award winning publication both for its artistic composition as well as its content.
This post is not about the school but is very much about a very special book that highlights the cover of the current edition / Winter 2010: Running the Numbers.
To quote from the magazine: "The artist Chris Jordon documents American consumerism by creating digital images that bring daunting statistics to life. His latest book, Running the Numbers, was published in April."
The following are a few of the "daunting statistics" that are represented in the link to this article. However, even more impressive than the statistics are the images that have been assembled to provide visual and visceral impact to the raw numbers.
This post is not about the school but is very much about a very special book that highlights the cover of the current edition / Winter 2010: Running the Numbers.
To quote from the magazine: "The artist Chris Jordon documents American consumerism by creating digital images that bring daunting statistics to life. His latest book, Running the Numbers, was published in April."
The following are a few of the "daunting statistics" that are represented in the link to this article. However, even more impressive than the statistics are the images that have been assembled to provide visual and visceral impact to the raw numbers.
- Riding the Wave: 2.4 million / "Gyre", 2008
The estimated number of pounds of plastic that enter the world's oceans every hour. All of the plastic in this image was collected from the Pacific Ocean; - In A Puff: 200,000 / "Skull with Cigarette", 2008
The number of Americans who die every six months from illnesses associated with cigarette smoking, and the number of cigarette packs used to create this image; - All Dolled Up: 32,000 / "Barbie Dolls", 2008
The number of elective breast augmentation surgeries performed monthly in the United States in 2006, represented by the same number of Barbie Dolls.
I hope you will consider this - and future - issue of Denison Magazine. More importantly, I hope you will purchase Jordon's book.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Freshwater: Key to Global Health
The devastation in Haiti has provided the world with an upfront, 24x7 cornucopia of media attention.
The world has known about conditions in Haiti AND Sudan AND Yemen AND all of the other developing countries for quite some time. Yet, it usually takes an extraordinary event to mobilize international efforts.
Unfortunately, these efforts are usually ex post facto.
With so much concurrent activity, it is often difficult to focus attention on any one aspect because everything seems to be a 10 in severity.
The following paper from the UNU (org link can be accessed to the right of this blog): Safe Water as the Key to Global Health provides a singular focus that is critical not just in Haiti, but throughout most of the world.
The world has known about conditions in Haiti AND Sudan AND Yemen AND all of the other developing countries for quite some time. Yet, it usually takes an extraordinary event to mobilize international efforts.
Unfortunately, these efforts are usually ex post facto.
With so much concurrent activity, it is often difficult to focus attention on any one aspect because everything seems to be a 10 in severity.
The following paper from the UNU (org link can be accessed to the right of this blog): Safe Water as the Key to Global Health provides a singular focus that is critical not just in Haiti, but throughout most of the world.
China: Growth/Freshwater/Pollution
In a recent blog, I shared information about Russia's (and the world's) largest and deepest freshwater lake. The focus was to bring attention to freshwater quality, industry and pollution.
The following article from Circle of Blue (follow its link from this blog on the right): Tracing Kunming - China's Freshwater Hazards - is another example of the concerns that must be given to economic growth and the potential to pollute finite freshwater reserves.
To quote MasterCard: "Priceless"
Soon, we will begin to see just how priceless freshwater really is.
The following article from Circle of Blue (follow its link from this blog on the right): Tracing Kunming - China's Freshwater Hazards - is another example of the concerns that must be given to economic growth and the potential to pollute finite freshwater reserves.
To quote MasterCard: "Priceless"
Soon, we will begin to see just how priceless freshwater really is.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
So What if Climate is Changing! How does this Affect Farming?
Often we take agriculture for granted. Except for the poorer, developing countries, we just assume that markets will have whatever food we are accustomed to buying.
But, what if climate is beginning to change! What if the "traditional" drylands that produce most of the world's agriculture are beginning to experience variations in the amounts and occurrence of rainfall. What kind of adaptation would be required to continue to produce the foods we are most accustomed to buying?
The following article: Burkina Faso / Farmers Act on Climate Change, can be found on the Desertification Blog to the right or on the UN website for IRIN.
Burkina Faso - not a major player in global economics, and positioned right in the heart of the West African Sahel - is experiencing such changes in the quantities of rainfall and timing of the growing season. Can this poor, developing country adapt to the coming changes? Can there be lessons for others who may be next in line for changes?
But, what if climate is beginning to change! What if the "traditional" drylands that produce most of the world's agriculture are beginning to experience variations in the amounts and occurrence of rainfall. What kind of adaptation would be required to continue to produce the foods we are most accustomed to buying?
The following article: Burkina Faso / Farmers Act on Climate Change, can be found on the Desertification Blog to the right or on the UN website for IRIN.
Burkina Faso - not a major player in global economics, and positioned right in the heart of the West African Sahel - is experiencing such changes in the quantities of rainfall and timing of the growing season. Can this poor, developing country adapt to the coming changes? Can there be lessons for others who may be next in line for changes?
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Lake Baikal: Oldest & Deepest Lake in the World
This is a very impressive lake.
As the oldest - 25 million years old, and the deepest - 1,700 metres/5,100 feet, it contains 20% of the world's total unfrozen freshwater reserve! The lake is known as the "Galapagos of Russia".
The following two links will provide more facts about the lake:
As the oldest - 25 million years old, and the deepest - 1,700 metres/5,100 feet, it contains 20% of the world's total unfrozen freshwater reserve! The lake is known as the "Galapagos of Russia".
The following two links will provide more facts about the lake:
For some years, the lake has been threatened. Unchecked, human intervention is again at play. If today's Wall Street Journal article by Richard Boudreaux is accurate: Putin's Move Revives Environmental Controversy (01/2010), the world is a bit skeptical of the positive evaluation provided by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
After descending to the depths of the lake in a minisubmarine, he "pronounced the lake ecologically clean." Of course, it was probably in his (the State's) best interest to make such a declaration since the State owns 49% of the paper plant that environmentalists believe is heavily polluting the lake.
Himalayan Glacier Melt: Fact or Fiction?
There is a big difference between WILL and COULD.
The original reference to the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers was made in an article by Fred Pearce from NewScientist (06/1999): Flooded Out that is causing quite a bit of controversy. Actually, it caused a lot of controversy when it was made and has been used as a foundational piece in recent climate change theory.
The author, Syed Hasnain, chief author of the report from the International Commission on Snow and Ice (ICSI) claims - in the most recent NYTimes article (01/2010): UN Panel's Glacier Warning Is Criticised as Exaggerated - that he was "misquoted".
In more recent articles, he has stated that "his research suggests that only small glaciers could disappear entirely."
So, it seems that the caution remains.
It is not that climate is not changing. It is also not that as the Himalayan glaciers retreat, the negative impact on all of the Asian countries that depend on the snow and ice to replenish increasingly scarce freshwater will only get worse.
The real impact of misstatements is that "the [UN] panel's reports [the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/IPCC] are the basis for global policy and their conclusions are widely heeded."
The debate will continue about whose information is reliable and how we should act upon the findings.
There is simply too much at stake to get it wrong.
The original reference to the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers was made in an article by Fred Pearce from NewScientist (06/1999): Flooded Out that is causing quite a bit of controversy. Actually, it caused a lot of controversy when it was made and has been used as a foundational piece in recent climate change theory.
The author, Syed Hasnain, chief author of the report from the International Commission on Snow and Ice (ICSI) claims - in the most recent NYTimes article (01/2010): UN Panel's Glacier Warning Is Criticised as Exaggerated - that he was "misquoted".
In more recent articles, he has stated that "his research suggests that only small glaciers could disappear entirely."
So, it seems that the caution remains.
It is not that climate is not changing. It is also not that as the Himalayan glaciers retreat, the negative impact on all of the Asian countries that depend on the snow and ice to replenish increasingly scarce freshwater will only get worse.
The real impact of misstatements is that "the [UN] panel's reports [the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/IPCC] are the basis for global policy and their conclusions are widely heeded."
The debate will continue about whose information is reliable and how we should act upon the findings.
There is simply too much at stake to get it wrong.
Monday, January 18, 2010
To Understand Haiti is to See Hispaniola
With the recent tragedy in Haiti, the world's initial reaction is to provide humanitarian aid - LOTS of aid. In reality, the challenges in Haiti are as much the challenges of Hispaniola. For Haiti is forever linked to the Dominican Republic by more than just an invisible border.
The following few links might be useful in providing an historical and environmental perspective of the two nations of Hispaniola. The challenges are much greater than the obvious environmental devastation caused by the recent earthquake.
From the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO): The Frontier that Unites is a view of the resource challenges of the island and the impending pressures on both countries.
In a paper describing the history of the island from Columbus through present: One Island, Two Separate Nations/Environmental Management in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, Tessie Swope provides a very educational perspective on how and why the two nations may be in their present state. Especially revealing of the environmental differences is a satellite photo of the border between the two countries.
The following article from DominicanToday: Haitian Charcoal Makers Ravage the Border... will offer an explanation of Haitian behavior that has caused the forest destruction along the border with Dominican Republic.
Important to the recovery of Haiti from this earthquake is more than simply the restoration of services to its citizens. It must include a well-developed, long-term program to change the culture that has maintained the status quo of that nation for so long. Yet, the irony to any solution is that the history of Haiti may continue to hinder any external influence simply because of .......its history!
The following few links might be useful in providing an historical and environmental perspective of the two nations of Hispaniola. The challenges are much greater than the obvious environmental devastation caused by the recent earthquake.
From the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO): The Frontier that Unites is a view of the resource challenges of the island and the impending pressures on both countries.
In a paper describing the history of the island from Columbus through present: One Island, Two Separate Nations/Environmental Management in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, Tessie Swope provides a very educational perspective on how and why the two nations may be in their present state. Especially revealing of the environmental differences is a satellite photo of the border between the two countries.
The following article from DominicanToday: Haitian Charcoal Makers Ravage the Border... will offer an explanation of Haitian behavior that has caused the forest destruction along the border with Dominican Republic.
Important to the recovery of Haiti from this earthquake is more than simply the restoration of services to its citizens. It must include a well-developed, long-term program to change the culture that has maintained the status quo of that nation for so long. Yet, the irony to any solution is that the history of Haiti may continue to hinder any external influence simply because of .......its history!
Sunday, January 17, 2010
the Salton Sea vs the Aral Sea - and Don't Forget Lake Chad
This is a look at three important inland bodies of water. The first link relates to a lesson plan from the University of California at San Diego (UCSD) comparing conditions of the Salton Sea (North America/California) and the Aral Sea (Asia). The second link was written by Mickey Glantz and describes the challenges facing both Lake Chad (West Africa) and the Aral Sea.
The reason I thought these would be interesting is because one of the main purposes of Dimidia is to be an educational portal to information related to Dryland and Freshwater Degradation.
In that sense, I thought that these profiles of the conditions affecting these major inland bodies of water would be an important way to think and learn about similarities of these (and other) environmental problems.
For example:
The reason I thought these would be interesting is because one of the main purposes of Dimidia is to be an educational portal to information related to Dryland and Freshwater Degradation.
In that sense, I thought that these profiles of the conditions affecting these major inland bodies of water would be an important way to think and learn about similarities of these (and other) environmental problems.
For example:
- Recent environmental changes to these seas have been caused by human intervention.
- The Aral and Salton seas are closed water systems - having no outlets. Neither is able to support a fishing industry. Because of human water needs, the fishing industry of Lake Chad has been severely reduced.
- Environmental solutions to both the Salton and Aral seas are hindered by political obstacles.
Investigation of the Aral and Salton Seas
Lake Chad and the Aral Sea:
A Sad Tale of Two Seas
Both the Aral Sea and Lake Chad have established Basin Commissions who are looking at how to best improve the overall health of the water bodies and to manage the governments who depend on their waters.
What About India? Energy & Development Needs Two Decades Forward
This view comes from 100% Brazil (12/2009). The author, Dr. Kirit Parikh, a former member of the Planning Commission, is now the Chairman of Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe).
As global population continues to grow, human needs will expand as well. Perhaps there are lessons in Dr. Parikh's suggestions.
As global population continues to grow, human needs will expand as well. Perhaps there are lessons in Dr. Parikh's suggestions.
Friday, January 15, 2010
The BioChar Controversy: Another Scientific Perspective
Thanks to Dr. Van Cotthem for the article link from his blog on another perspective to the environmental potential of BioChar as reported in our last post.
The document: Is BioChar Green? can be found on his blog at:
The document: Is BioChar Green? can be found on his blog at:
Click on the link, then the .pdf document for more details about its potential as well as possible yet-to-be-substantiated claims.
An Ancient Solution to Carbon Sequestration
There is no question that modern science continues to get smarter about the analysis of our universe. Yet, in spite of achievements, there also remains a lot of controversy - and disagreement - about some of the causes and effects of environmental processes.
The following three links (ScienceDaily) offer a modern view of something commonly practiced long ago that has become "new knowledge" for us today.
Simpler Ways to Counter Global Warming Explained... (05/2007) is a scientific explanation of the process of producing bioenergy using pryolysis (low temperature burning without oxygen).
Both Ancient Soil Replenishment Technique... (12/2008) and From the Ancient Amazonian Indians... (01/2010) provide convincing evidence - evidence that remains in effect 500 years BEYOND the extinction of the tribes of the Amazon Basin - that biochar helped to transform some of the most infertile soils into some of the most productive.
They were some of our early conservationists.
The following three links (ScienceDaily) offer a modern view of something commonly practiced long ago that has become "new knowledge" for us today.
This "new knowledge" is all about biochar!
Simpler Ways to Counter Global Warming Explained... (05/2007) is a scientific explanation of the process of producing bioenergy using pryolysis (low temperature burning without oxygen).
Both Ancient Soil Replenishment Technique... (12/2008) and From the Ancient Amazonian Indians... (01/2010) provide convincing evidence - evidence that remains in effect 500 years BEYOND the extinction of the tribes of the Amazon Basin - that biochar helped to transform some of the most infertile soils into some of the most productive.
They were some of our early conservationists.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Ozone Sources: Natural or Man-Made?
Investigation of this issue came from a recent conversation with a friend, Joe Mastromatteo, who is always looking for ways to help advance the Dimidia cause.
Today, it was about lightning and ozone.
I was able to identify two NASA related studies that provide an interesting profile in ozone formation. I found both in issues of Innovations Report, a Forum for Science, Industry and Business. However, the original findings were published in the American Geophysical Union's Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres.
The first article - Satellites See Lightning Strikes in Ozone's Origin (07/2003) - offers a very interesting description of how collaborators from NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), Canada and Europe, using several different NASA and ESA (European Space Agency) satellites and a computer model from NCAR were able to determine the origin of low-level ozone pollution and whether the sources were man-made or natural. There are a couple of good graphics as well.
The article is very interesting. I will only provide one discovery and hope you will read the entire article.
Today, it was about lightning and ozone.
I was able to identify two NASA related studies that provide an interesting profile in ozone formation. I found both in issues of Innovations Report, a Forum for Science, Industry and Business. However, the original findings were published in the American Geophysical Union's Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres.
The first article - Satellites See Lightning Strikes in Ozone's Origin (07/2003) - offers a very interesting description of how collaborators from NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), Canada and Europe, using several different NASA and ESA (European Space Agency) satellites and a computer model from NCAR were able to determine the origin of low-level ozone pollution and whether the sources were man-made or natural. There are a couple of good graphics as well.
The article is very interesting. I will only provide one discovery and hope you will read the entire article.
- Fires create smoke and carbon monoxide. Lightning creates nitrogen oxides. All of these come together with other unstable compounds in a chemical soup. Sunlight helps trigger the reaction that helps form ozone!
The second article - Study Shows Lightning Adds to Ozone Level (03/2003) - provides even more insight into the impact of lightning worldwide. Here are a couple of facts from that report.
- There is strong evidence that urban air pollution may contribute to more lightning, creating more ozone over the United States.
- Nitrogen oxides can lead to the formation of ozone and smog and these can greatly increase chemical reactions in the atmosphere.
How much lightning is out there each year? 77 million lightning bolts strike the US each year. Worldwide, lightning flashes occur about 60 times per second!
I guess nature is as good at creating atmospheric pollutants as are humans.
Global Aquifers - Earth's Ancient Groundwater: The Importance of this Critical Non-Renewable Resource
Agriculture is synonymous with freshwater. Population centers are also synonymous with freshwater. Human existence is synonymous with ample, available freshwater supplies.
Yet, I would bet that most of us do not realize the size and scale of the vast system of underground water repositories known as aquifers. Even more critical is to understand the growing threats to these non-renewable resources: pollution and depletion.
This post will introduce two links to understanding the scope, importance and threats to these once vast resources.
Each continent has a number of these large, underground bodies of water. Some are much larger than others. Some are more pure (less polluted/less saline) than others. Many have been continuously depleted over hundreds and thousands of years.
The first link highlights the origin of an effort to map the world's aquifer systems. In 2006, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) published a map of the 273 Shared Global Aquifers (groundwater resources which cross national boundaries).
Just click on either link (from Water for the Ages) in the first two sections of the introduction to: UNESCO Launches Global Aquifer Map (10/2008) to view a selection of files showing various resolutions of maps. These will be important visual guides to the numerous bodies of underground freshwater reserves.
The second link will open into a paper that discusses the need for a global effort to properly manage all of these threatened reserves: Towards a Global Transboundary Watercourse and Aquifer Agreement (GTWAA)
Though lengthy (26 pages), it contains a well-crafted review of the issues around all of global aquifers and will provide a very useful understanding of why they are important.
Yet, I would bet that most of us do not realize the size and scale of the vast system of underground water repositories known as aquifers. Even more critical is to understand the growing threats to these non-renewable resources: pollution and depletion.
This post will introduce two links to understanding the scope, importance and threats to these once vast resources.
Each continent has a number of these large, underground bodies of water. Some are much larger than others. Some are more pure (less polluted/less saline) than others. Many have been continuously depleted over hundreds and thousands of years.
The first link highlights the origin of an effort to map the world's aquifer systems. In 2006, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) published a map of the 273 Shared Global Aquifers (groundwater resources which cross national boundaries).
Just click on either link (from Water for the Ages) in the first two sections of the introduction to: UNESCO Launches Global Aquifer Map (10/2008) to view a selection of files showing various resolutions of maps. These will be important visual guides to the numerous bodies of underground freshwater reserves.
The second link will open into a paper that discusses the need for a global effort to properly manage all of these threatened reserves: Towards a Global Transboundary Watercourse and Aquifer Agreement (GTWAA)
Though lengthy (26 pages), it contains a well-crafted review of the issues around all of global aquifers and will provide a very useful understanding of why they are important.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Forests, Plants and Oceans: No Longer Able to Clean-Up Excess CO2
One of the latest entries from Professor Van Cotthem's blog (Desertification...to the right), states that Forests are Losing their Ability to Trap CO2. Studies from the University of Colorado at Boulder have discovered that the original studies are incorrect. It seems that longer growing seasons DO NOT increase plant carbon uptake.
If you add to this discovery the results of another study contained in this blog - Can Climate Change Without Increases in Atmospheric CO2? - that the ability of plants and oceans to absorb carbon dioxide is beginning to decline which will begin to cause an increase in airborne anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, then we might be in trouble.
So, if forests, plants and oceans are having problems absorbing these emissions, then that does not leave many other ecosystems with the ability to clean-up earth's atmospheric mess.
If you add to this discovery the results of another study contained in this blog - Can Climate Change Without Increases in Atmospheric CO2? - that the ability of plants and oceans to absorb carbon dioxide is beginning to decline which will begin to cause an increase in airborne anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, then we might be in trouble.
So, if forests, plants and oceans are having problems absorbing these emissions, then that does not leave many other ecosystems with the ability to clean-up earth's atmospheric mess.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
A Boundless Carbon Cycle: Carbon Sequestration and Inland Water
It seems that there is yet another important carbon transport system whose importance has been overlooked.
A group of international scientists argue in their paper (NatureGeoscience: 09/2009) - The Boundless Carbon Cycle - that streams, rivers, lakes, reservoirs and wetlands (inland waters) play an important role in the carbon cycle that is unaccounted for in conventional carbon cycling models.
See what you think.
A group of international scientists argue in their paper (NatureGeoscience: 09/2009) - The Boundless Carbon Cycle - that streams, rivers, lakes, reservoirs and wetlands (inland waters) play an important role in the carbon cycle that is unaccounted for in conventional carbon cycling models.
See what you think.
Spain: A Path from Tourism to Desertification
In Spain, nearly 70% of its freshwater is used first, for agriculture and tourism. And, like many countries, much of the water used in agriculture is improperly applied - that is, it is wasted. The water situation is just as bad in the neighboring countries of France and Italy.
A heatwave in Europe in 2006 had a dramatic effect on Europe's water resources. A TerraDaily article (04/2008) Severe Spanish Drought Sparks Regional Fights Over Water provides a closer view of this problem.
Like virtually every dryland region around the world, there will continue to be a struggle between natural cycles of rainfall and human needs. Spain is simply another example in the increasingly dryer region of Southern Europe.
Is this region really any different than the story of Lake Elementaita in Kenya: A Lake Lies on Its Deathbed?
One additional factor is at play in Spain as well as along the coastal areas of these Mediterranean countries (and Kenya): tourism. Reading the following article will explain why. Climate Change in Spain: Desertification (Euranet: 01/2009) states emphatically that "Spain has more to fear than most. Desertification is threatening the center of the country. However, the coasts will not be spared - in particular, due to over-exploitation from tourism."
I have heard this comment more than a few times from EU members from Spain. Spain consumes a lot of water, especially by the many tourists who migrate to the southern beaches from the colder regions of Great Britain, Scandinavia and Germany.
A heatwave in Europe in 2006 had a dramatic effect on Europe's water resources. A TerraDaily article (04/2008) Severe Spanish Drought Sparks Regional Fights Over Water provides a closer view of this problem.
Like virtually every dryland region around the world, there will continue to be a struggle between natural cycles of rainfall and human needs. Spain is simply another example in the increasingly dryer region of Southern Europe.
Is this region really any different than the story of Lake Elementaita in Kenya: A Lake Lies on Its Deathbed?
One additional factor is at play in Spain as well as along the coastal areas of these Mediterranean countries (and Kenya): tourism. Reading the following article will explain why. Climate Change in Spain: Desertification (Euranet: 01/2009) states emphatically that "Spain has more to fear than most. Desertification is threatening the center of the country. However, the coasts will not be spared - in particular, due to over-exploitation from tourism."
I have heard this comment more than a few times from EU members from Spain. Spain consumes a lot of water, especially by the many tourists who migrate to the southern beaches from the colder regions of Great Britain, Scandinavia and Germany.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Under-Reporting the Most Dangerous Greenhouse Gasses
The following link is a sobering look at some of the most dangerous atmospheric gasses and their impact on Anthropogenic Global Warming.
The news is rife with reports about carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) as the most favored greenhouse gasses. The following table provides a more comprehensive list beyond those two most common:
The news is rife with reports about carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) as the most favored greenhouse gasses. The following table provides a more comprehensive list beyond those two most common:
There are, however, even more dangerous gasses that are even more under-reported which could be contributing a far worse impact on Anthropogenic Global Warming. These appear in the link to a recent BusinessWeek article by John Carey and Mark Scott (12/30/2009):
Maybe it's time to expand our vocabulary and knowledge of names like Sulphur Hexaflouride (SF6) which is 23,900 times MORE POWERFUL than CO2 and Nitrogen Triflouride (NF3) which is commonly used in the manufacturing of flat-panel displays.
The article will also share information about how gas volumes are calculated (estimated) which is also quite imprecise. So, perhaps like a good magician who is able to distract his audience from "seeing" his magic, the public is being purposefully conditioned to "see" CO2 and CH4 when we really need to expand our vision to other more potent gasses like SF6 and NF3.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Can Climate Change without Increases in Atmospheric CO2?
What if there has not been any discernible increase in CO2 emissions in the past 50 years? Or, in the past 100 years? Or, even in the past 150 years? How would scientists supporting the theory for Anthropogenic Global Warming account for the rises in global temperatures?
In an article appearing in ScienceDaily (12/31/2009) the conclusion that climate has NOT changed because of increases in anthropogenic CO2 was reached. The article: No Rise in Airborne Fraction of Carbon Dioxide in Past 150 Years, New Research Finds was extracted from details published in the Geophysical Research Letters.
What exactly would that mean if it were true? Here is the key point of the article.
In an article appearing in ScienceDaily (12/31/2009) the conclusion that climate has NOT changed because of increases in anthropogenic CO2 was reached. The article: No Rise in Airborne Fraction of Carbon Dioxide in Past 150 Years, New Research Finds was extracted from details published in the Geophysical Research Letters.
What exactly would that mean if it were true? Here is the key point of the article.
- Apparently, only 45% of ALL emitted carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere. Most of the anthropogenic (caused by humans) carbon dioxide emissions are absorbed by oceans and terrestrial ecosystems!
Another way of saying this is that the balance between airborne and absorbed fraction of carbon dioxide has stayed approximately constant since 1850.
A second ScienceDaily article (11/11/2009): Controversial New Climate Change Data/Is Earth's Capacity to Absorb CO2 Much Greater than Expected?, concludes that terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans have a much greater capacity to absorb CO2 than had been previously anticipated.
However, with all good news must come some bad news - The Awakening.
It seems that many scientists also believe that the ability of plants and oceans to absorb carbon dioxide has begun to decline and that the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is therefore beginning to increase.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Milankovitch and the Next Ice Age
There really are a lot of sites dedicated to understanding/defending/debunking the Milankovitch Theory of Climate Change. I suggest that you take a ride through your favorite search engine and complete your own analysis.
I felt compelled to do some additional research to see if I could get a little bit smarter to what he has theorized and what others believe about the likelihood of it getting colder and icier in the near future.
In an older New York Times article (11/11/2003) by Andrew Revkin, he shares some thoughts from scientific experts that I hope will encourage you to continue beyond this post. I think it is safe to state that there will be another ice age! Many scientists believe that we are well into the final stages of our current inter-glacial period. Of course, that depends on whether the science is correct behind determining that the cycles are regularly occurring every 12,000 years or so. A Big IF.
The article can be accessed at the following link:
I felt compelled to do some additional research to see if I could get a little bit smarter to what he has theorized and what others believe about the likelihood of it getting colder and icier in the near future.
In an older New York Times article (11/11/2003) by Andrew Revkin, he shares some thoughts from scientific experts that I hope will encourage you to continue beyond this post. I think it is safe to state that there will be another ice age! Many scientists believe that we are well into the final stages of our current inter-glacial period. Of course, that depends on whether the science is correct behind determining that the cycles are regularly occurring every 12,000 years or so. A Big IF.
The article can be accessed at the following link:
Yet, there are some interesting details that help us through this uncertainty.
- The next Ice Age will reach its peak in about 80,000 years! It seems that where there is disagreement is when everyone believes it will begin.
- Humans (intervention into nature) may delay the dawn of the next Ice Age by a millennium or two or even longer.
- Humans (intervention into nature) have taken over control of the mechanisms that determine the climate change.
- Human-driven global warming - although perhaps a disaster on a scale of centuries - may be a good thing in the long run if it fends off the next ice age awhile.
These may not offer much consolation. The interviews seem to indicate are that Nature has a way of taking over to restore balance. Humans have demonstrated an uncanny ability for pushing the envelope and may even be able to exhaust natural order to a breaking point.
There will continue to be theories. There will continue to be variances in those theories. Whether atmospheric gas build-up or glacial ice wins, there is a good chance that human resourcefulness may simply run out of options.
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Astronomical Theory of Climate Change
In my previous post, I referred to an article from the WSJ about natural cycles which have stronger climate influences than the emissions contributed by humans. The author discussed how other phenomena are strong contributors to global climate as well.
A US Department of Commerce (NOAA) article (access in the following link) - Astronomical Theory of Climate Change - further elaborates the concepts discussed from the WSJ.
Earth is a traveler. "The TILT of the earth relative to its plane of travel about the sun is what causes its seasons." However, an even more significant impact to global climate is caused by CHANGES in the earth's tilt. "MORE tilt will mean more severe seasons. LESS tilt will mean less severe seasons.
The earth not only tilts but also WOBBLES. There are regular cycles to these effects. It seems that the TILT can change from 22 to 25 degrees on a cycle of about 41,000 years.
Of course, this gets even more complex with yet another variable. The earth's orbit around the sun is not quite circular. That means that there are times when it is slightly closer to the sun than at other times. The CLOSEST approach of earth to the sun is called PERIHELION. This "roundness" of its orbit is called ECCENTRICITY and varies in cycles of 100,000 and 400,000 years which also contributes to the severity of the seasons.
All of this is leading to the introduction of the Milankovitch Theory. It seems that this Serbian astronomer did a lot of calculating and determined that climate change can be explained by changes in the seasons which results from changes in the earth's orbit around the sun.
Since it is the orbital changes which have the greatest impact on climate change and that these "changes occur over thousands of years, then the climate system may also take thousands of years to respond to orbital forcing."
So, let's return to the previous post and take a few thoughts from its author, Howard Bloom. "Weather changes and occasional meteors have tossed this planet through roughly 142 mass extinctions since life began 3.85 billion years ago. That's an average of one mass extinction every 26.5 million years. We do not want to be victims of one of these mass extinctions! We have to prepare for more than just the changes we think we make."
To conclude with thoughts from a previous post.
A US Department of Commerce (NOAA) article (access in the following link) - Astronomical Theory of Climate Change - further elaborates the concepts discussed from the WSJ.
Earth is a traveler. "The TILT of the earth relative to its plane of travel about the sun is what causes its seasons." However, an even more significant impact to global climate is caused by CHANGES in the earth's tilt. "MORE tilt will mean more severe seasons. LESS tilt will mean less severe seasons.
The earth not only tilts but also WOBBLES. There are regular cycles to these effects. It seems that the TILT can change from 22 to 25 degrees on a cycle of about 41,000 years.
Of course, this gets even more complex with yet another variable. The earth's orbit around the sun is not quite circular. That means that there are times when it is slightly closer to the sun than at other times. The CLOSEST approach of earth to the sun is called PERIHELION. This "roundness" of its orbit is called ECCENTRICITY and varies in cycles of 100,000 and 400,000 years which also contributes to the severity of the seasons.
All of this is leading to the introduction of the Milankovitch Theory. It seems that this Serbian astronomer did a lot of calculating and determined that climate change can be explained by changes in the seasons which results from changes in the earth's orbit around the sun.
Since it is the orbital changes which have the greatest impact on climate change and that these "changes occur over thousands of years, then the climate system may also take thousands of years to respond to orbital forcing."
So, let's return to the previous post and take a few thoughts from its author, Howard Bloom. "Weather changes and occasional meteors have tossed this planet through roughly 142 mass extinctions since life began 3.85 billion years ago. That's an average of one mass extinction every 26.5 million years. We do not want to be victims of one of these mass extinctions! We have to prepare for more than just the changes we think we make."
To conclude with thoughts from a previous post.
- Does this mean that CO2 is NOT a greenhouse gas? No.
- Does it mean that there is NOT global warming? No.
- Does is mean that we should NOT develop clean, efficient technology that gets its energy elsewhere than burning fossil fuels? No.
This simply means that there is a lot of stuff going on around us that requires us to be as creative as possible while we are in the current 12,000 year cycle of climate stability. Because,"Mother Nature is not nice" and in the grand scheme of planetary cycles, we really don't carry a lot of weight and influence. We simply need to take care of the things that we are most responsible for.
Starting the New Year with Another Climate Change Perspective
This one is not new. Well, it is new to me but not new. For me, this view begins in a recent Wall Street Journal article (12/17/2009): Climate Change is Nature's Way by Howard Bloom. He begins with "climate change activists are right - but [are] wrong about the reason."
A good opening that got my attention.
He discusses all of the planetary changes we have encountered since emerging as Homo Erectus - well before the creation of tailpipes and smokestacks. He agrees that someday, this period of relatively stable weather that was conducive to our evolution as a species will one day come to a dramatic conclusion. As we approach that point - sometime thousands of years into the future, we must prepare for dealing with a Mother Nature who really is not nice.
His story is one of travel. "The Earth is a traveler...The Sun is a traveler." He provides an interesting perspective of the various movements throughout the universe. He also talks about Earth wobble and other concepts which I will pursue in another post to follow.
If a $1.2 Trillion (US) national debt sounds like a lot, he thinks that we might be on the way to spend about $27 Trillion for the wrong reasons.
A good opening that got my attention.
He discusses all of the planetary changes we have encountered since emerging as Homo Erectus - well before the creation of tailpipes and smokestacks. He agrees that someday, this period of relatively stable weather that was conducive to our evolution as a species will one day come to a dramatic conclusion. As we approach that point - sometime thousands of years into the future, we must prepare for dealing with a Mother Nature who really is not nice.
His story is one of travel. "The Earth is a traveler...The Sun is a traveler." He provides an interesting perspective of the various movements throughout the universe. He also talks about Earth wobble and other concepts which I will pursue in another post to follow.
If a $1.2 Trillion (US) national debt sounds like a lot, he thinks that we might be on the way to spend about $27 Trillion for the wrong reasons.
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